Moscow may hand Iran S-300, breach arms embargo if Assad ousted

DEBKAfile
Thursday, July 5, 2012

Moscow has removed the gloves in its defense of Syrian ruler Bashar Assad. Wednesday, July 4, senior official Ruslan Pukhov warned: “If the Syrian regime is changed by force or if Russia doesn’t like the outcome, it most likely will respond by selling S-300s to Iran.”

Pukhov, who sits on the Russian Defense Ministry’s advisory board and heads a defense affairs think tank in Moscow, added: “The fall of the Syrian government would significantly increase the chances of a strike on Iran. Resuming S-300 shipments to Iran may be a very timely decision.”

Moscow has since 2010 withheld the S-300 air defense system from Iran at the request of the US and Israel. The Pukhov statement indicated that, just as that was the correct decision for the time, the strategic situation in the Middle East with regard to Syria and Iran has since changed, and so providing Iran with these weapons would be the timely decision now.

Kremlin strategic thinking on the region shifted radically in August 2011.

Full story here.

View the original article here

Iran Oil Embargo Goes Into Effect: Crude Up 8%

Zero Hedge
Friday, June 29, 2012

Following a 3-sigma fall yesterday, WTI crude has rebounded exuberantly amid the European ecstacy and the Iran Oil Embargo. Up almost 9% from late yesterday’s lows (a 6-sigma jump), it appears yet another squeeze is in play (perhaps from demand-pull on the back of Hillary’s unyielding national policy – oh yeah apart from China and Singapore). While the WSJ notes: “There’s no material price premium from the Iran issue”, it seems the potential for an epic short-squeeze – as Iran’s largest importer of Oil (cough China cough) is now exempt (and continuing to hoard) leaving refiners potentially tight on supply – as macro tail-risk is seemingly removed from the downside by the ‘nothing’ summit we just experienced.

WTI swings of outrageous fortune…

as WTI reverts (like every other risk asset) to last week’s end of week levels as Europe’s imminent demise is demoted to a one month problem…

We can only assume that all those airlines hedging and gas stations are timing these moves perfectly to make sure that the ‘tax rebate’ of lower gas prices stays with us and creates a self-sustaining recovery

 

View the original article here